Current Gold Prices on a Rise in the US
Historically, gold has been considered a safe-haven for investors jittery
about inflation or the economy.
With skittish investors diversifying their portfolios with commodities,
demand for gold has shot up. During the summer's market meltdown, prices
remained modestly higher compared to the start of the year before moving
higher in recent weeks. Just last week, gold hit $744.80 an ounce - its
highest level in 27 years.
So far this year, gold prices are up about 22 percent to nearly $750 an ounce
- helped by the declining dollar and growing interest from institutional
investors.
And given a confluence of factors, including heightened seasonal demand,
analysts believe that prices for the precious metal will move higher still
and are poised to shatter its all-time record.
All signs point higher.
Many analysts say the biggest driving factor has been the weakening dollar. A
weaker greenback makes gold, which is priced in dollars, more attractive to
buyers outside the United States.
Rallying investors drunk on Fed cut
At the same time, worries about inflation have also stoked gold prices,
according to Jon Nadler, an analyst with Kitco.com.
Indeed, gold typically attracts investors looking for a hedge against
inflation. That factor has become especially important now with oil prices
near record highs and after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week
for the first time in four years.
Of course, if interest by institutional investors or hedge funds wanes or
consumer demand for jewelry slackens amid weakened consumer spending, gold
prices could move right back down, according to experts.
By some analysts' estimates, gold prices are headed for $750 an ounce by the
end of the year.
And gold could find even more support at the consumer level. Typically, the
period from September through year's end sees demand for gold climb in the
United States amid the holiday shopping season. Demand is also high in India,
the world's largest consumer of gold, because the next few months are a
popular time for weddings and mark the celebration of the Hindu new year.
Peter Spina, an analyst with GoldSeek.com, speculated the price could even
top its all-time high of $850, set in January 1980.
"It's easily within reach by year's end," he said.
Granted gold is looking more attractive given recent signs of softness in the
U.S. economy, though the climate is not nearly as dire as it was in 1980. At
that time, the United States was dealing with record oil prices and soaring
inflation as well as an unstable geopolitical climate that included the
Iranian hostage crisis.
And what would it take for gold to reach the more lofty price of $1,000 an
ounce?
That would require a major geopolitical event or another unexpected half a
percentage point cut by the Fed, said Carlos Sanchez, the associate director
of research at the New York-based commodities firm CPM Group.
"We may get to $1,000," he said. "But there would have to be some serious
circumstances."
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Submitted
2009-12-01 15:20:51
